This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Gyges’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Gyges | training | published before 2020 | 1,141 | 1,303 |
Gyges | validation | published 2020 | 86 | 82 |
Gyges | test | published after 2020 | 81 | 51 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Gyges | Fantasy Flight Games | 7.4% | 0.8% | 9.15 |
Gyges | ZMan Games | 6.0% | 1.2% | 5.00 |
Gyges | Miniatures Game | 17.8% | 4.0% | 4.40 |
Gyges | Rio Grande Games | 7.1% | 1.6% | 4.34 |
Gyges | Games With Solitaire Rules | 17.1% | 4.5% | 3.78 |
Gyges | Fighting | 23.3% | 6.5% | 3.58 |
Gyges | Asmodee | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.50 |
Gyges | GMT Games | 4.0% | 1.2% | 3.44 |
Gyges | Science Fiction | 19.0% | 6.9% | 2.75 |
Gyges | Fantasy | 26.4% | 11.0% | 2.39 |
Gyges | The Avalon Hill Game Co | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.30 |
Gyges | Action Dexterity | 3.9% | 5.3% | 0.75 |
Gyges | Hexagon Grid | 8.2% | 11.9% | 0.68 |
Gyges | Movies TV Radio Theme | 2.9% | 5.1% | 0.57 |
Gyges | Paper And Pencil | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.36 |
Gyges | Self-Published | 0.9% | 2.7% | 0.32 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.996 | yes |
2 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.992 | yes |
3 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.989 | no |
4 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.985 | no |
5 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.983 | yes |
6 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.981 | yes |
7 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.975 | no |
8 | 2000 | 475 | Taj Mahal | 0.971 | yes |
9 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.970 | yes |
10 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.968 | yes |
11 | 2019 | 253574 | Crusader Kings | 0.959 | no |
12 | 2013 | 146278 | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | 0.956 | no |
13 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.956 | no |
14 | 1998 | 3 | Samurai | 0.947 | yes |
15 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.946 | yes |
16 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.946 | no |
17 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.940 | yes |
18 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.935 | yes |
19 | 2005 | 12493 | Twilight Imperium: Third Edition | 0.932 | yes |
20 | 2008 | 38707 | Bushido: Der Weg des Kriegers | 0.932 | yes |
21 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.930 | yes |
22 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.926 | yes |
23 | 2014 | 132531 | Roll for the Galaxy | 0.924 | yes |
24 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.920 | yes |
25 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.919 | yes |
26 | 2019 | 169427 | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 | 0.913 | yes |
27 | 2010 | 54361 | Heroscape Master Set: Battle for the Underdark | 0.913 | yes |
28 | 2010 | 62222 | Commands & Colors: Napoleonics | 0.908 | yes |
29 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.902 | yes |
30 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.898 | no |
31 | 2004 | 9446 | Blue Moon | 0.898 | yes |
32 | 2004 | 11170 | Heroscape Master Set: Rise of the Valkyrie | 0.894 | yes |
33 | 2017 | 193728 | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | 0.894 | no |
34 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.892 | yes |
35 | 2011 | 72125 | Eclipse | 0.888 | yes |
36 | 2016 | 152172 | Nova Aetas | 0.886 | no |
37 | 1995 | 46 | Medici | 0.883 | no |
38 | 1998 | 503 | Through the Desert | 0.883 | yes |
39 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.880 | no |
40 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.879 | yes |
41 | 2016 | 224483 | Exceed Fighting System | 0.874 | no |
42 | 2009 | 45315 | Dungeon Lords | 0.873 | yes |
43 | 2007 | 31481 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.872 | yes |
44 | 2011 | 108429 | Age of Reason | 0.870 | no |
45 | 1999 | 204 | Stephenson's Rocket | 0.869 | yes |
46 | 1979 | 121 | Dune | 0.868 | yes |
47 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.868 | no |
48 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.863 | yes |
49 | 2000 | 939 | Star Wars: The Queen's Gambit | 0.863 | yes |
50 | 2017 | 192135 | Too Many Bones | 0.861 | yes |
51 | 2018 | 255692 | New Frontiers | 0.860 | yes |
52 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.857 | yes |
53 | 2000 | 883 | Ivanhoe | 0.857 | no |
54 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.856 | yes |
55 | 2014 | 147154 | Blue Moon Legends | 0.856 | yes |
56 | 2015 | 182028 | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | 0.855 | yes |
57 | 2018 | 167355 | Nemesis | 0.854 | no |
58 | 2017 | 157979 | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | 0.854 | no |
59 | 2017 | 226562 | Immortals | 0.846 | yes |
60 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.844 | yes |
61 | 2003 | 5404 | Amun-Re | 0.843 | no |
62 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.839 | yes |
63 | 2017 | 242722 | Here I Stand: 500th Anniversary Edition | 0.839 | no |
64 | 2012 | 140068 | Galaxy Trucker: Anniversary Edition | 0.839 | yes |
65 | 2013 | 133528 | City of Remnants | 0.833 | yes |
66 | 2011 | 83330 | Mansions of Madness | 0.831 | no |
67 | 2018 | 170604 | Renegade | 0.828 | no |
68 | 2006 | 25613 | Through the Ages: A Story of Civilization | 0.827 | yes |
69 | 2011 | 102548 | Dungeon Fighter | 0.825 | yes |
70 | 2018 | 247763 | Underwater Cities | 0.824 | no |
71 | 2017 | 226501 | Dragonfire | 0.814 | no |
72 | 2014 | 146886 | La Granja | 0.813 | no |
73 | 2015 | 175155 | Forbidden Stars | 0.813 | yes |
74 | 2001 | 1345 | Genoa | 0.813 | yes |
75 | 2006 | 17392 | Here I Stand | 0.811 | yes |
76 | 2005 | 13642 | Louis XIV | 0.810 | yes |
77 | 2006 | 21882 | Blue Moon City | 0.805 | yes |
78 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.801 | yes |
79 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.801 | yes |
80 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.799 | yes |
81 | 2017 | 195560 | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | 0.799 | no |
82 | 2009 | 35634 | Samurai: The Card Game | 0.796 | no |
83 | 2000 | 531 | Merchants of Amsterdam | 0.794 | yes |
84 | 2002 | 4098 | Age of Steam | 0.793 | yes |
85 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.793 | yes |
86 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.791 | no |
87 | 2016 | 205716 | New Angeles | 0.789 | yes |
88 | 2004 | 9216 | Goa | 0.787 | yes |
89 | 2013 | 146439 | BattleLore: Second Edition | 0.787 | yes |
90 | 2015 | 169255 | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | 0.785 | no |
91 | 2014 | 154203 | Imperial Settlers | 0.780 | yes |
92 | 2004 | 9609 | War of the Ring | 0.780 | no |
93 | 2002 | 8095 | Prophecy | 0.778 | yes |
94 | 2007 | 22827 | StarCraft: The Board Game | 0.777 | yes |
95 | 2017 | 230889 | Aristeia! | 0.776 | yes |
96 | 2018 | 207729 | The Edge: Dawnfall | 0.776 | no |
97 | 2009 | 54998 | Cyclades | 0.775 | yes |
98 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.774 | yes |
99 | 2017 | 197831 | Dark Souls: The Board Game | 0.774 | no |
100 | 2018 | 222509 | Lords of Hellas | 0.768 | yes |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.88 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.80 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Gyges is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.989 | no |
2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.985 | no |
2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.975 | no |
2019 | 253574 | Crusader Kings | 0.959 | no |
2013 | 146278 | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | 0.956 | no |
What games does the model think Gyges is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2017 | 209344 | Rewordable | 0.004 | yes |
2010 | 88957 | Avatar: The Board Game | 0.004 | yes |
2008 | 36648 | Pyramid of Pengqueen | 0.005 | yes |
2018 | 228740 | Kitten Klash | 0.005 | yes |
1978 | 7 | Cathedral | 0.005 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Roll for the Galaxy | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | Star Wars: Rebellion | Gloomhaven | Rising Sun | Crusader Kings |
2 | Space Cadets | Glass Road | Blue Moon Legends | Forbidden Stars | Terraforming Mars | Gaia Project | New Frontiers | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
3 | Terra Mystica | City of Remnants | La Granja | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Nemesis | Last Bastion |
4 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | BattleLore: Second Edition | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 504 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Spirit Island | Renegade | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 |
5 | Galaxy Trucker: Anniversary Edition | Patchistory | Imperial Settlers | Blood Rage | Scythe | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | Underwater Cities | Aftermath |
6 | Mice and Mystics | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Fire in the Lake | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers | Nova Aetas | Fallout | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
7 | The Great Zimbabwe | Impulse | Fields of Arle | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Exceed Fighting System | Too Many Bones | The Edge: Dawnfall | Dune |
8 | Exodus: Proxima Centauri | Concordia | Thunderstone Advance: Worlds Collide | Yashima: Legend of the Kami Masters | New Angeles | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | Lords of Hellas | Era: Medieval Age |
9 | Il Vecchio | Level 7 [Omega Protocol] | Three Kingdoms Redux | Mombasa | DOOM: The Board Game | Immortals | Dungeon Alliance | Unmatched Game System |
10 | Android: Netrunner | BioShock Infinite: The Siege of Columbia | Galaxy Defenders | Space Cadets: Away Missions | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | Here I Stand: 500th Anniversary Edition | Donning the Purple | Rurik: Dawn of Kiev |
11 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Thunderstone Advance: Numenera | AquaSphere | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Aeon's End | Dragonfire | Pax Emancipation | Black Rose Wars |
12 | Andean Abyss | Zpocalypse | Kill Shakespeare | Super Dungeon Explore: Forgotten King | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Darklight: Memento Mori | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
13 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Cuba Libre | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Alien vs Predator: The Hunt Begins | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | Too Many Bones: Undertow | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
14 | Zombicide | Room 25 | Hyperborea | Zombicide: Black Plague | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers: Shadows over Innistrad | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Tapestry |
15 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Prosperity | Istanbul | Food Chain Magnate | Conan | Aristeia! | AuZtralia | Pax Pamir: Second Edition |
16 | Pax Porfiriana | Lost Legends | Akrotiri | Specter Ops | The Others | Dark Souls: The Board Game | Heroes of Terrinoth | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
17 | Virgin Queen | Tomorrow | Age of War | Metal Adventures | Star Trek: Frontiers | Sword & Sorcery | Zombicide: Green Horde | The Quest for El Dorado: The Golden Temples |
18 | 1989: Dawn of Freedom | Eldritch Horror | The Golden Ages | Kingdom Death: Monster | SeaFall | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Deep Madness | Black Angel |
19 | Thunderstone Advance: Towers of Ruin | Bruxelles 1893 | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Cry Havoc | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Newton | Bios: Origins (Second Edition) |
20 | Ginkgopolis | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Antike II | The Voyages of Marco Polo | Virus | A Handful of Stars | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | Zombicide: Invader |
21 | Clash of Cultures | A Study in Emerald | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Apocalypse Chaos | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | The Smog Riders: Dimensions of Madness | Star Realms: Frontiers | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea |
22 | Archipelago | Burning Suns | Orléans | MERCS: Recon – Assassination Protocol | Inis | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | Heroes of Land, Air & Sea | Machina Arcana (Second/Third Edition) |
23 | Kemet | Deadzone | Five Tribes | BATTALIA: The Creation | Hit Z Road | Lisboa | Yellow & Yangtze | Western Empires |
24 | Mage Wars Arena | Dungeon Twister: The Card Game | The Battle at Kemble's Cascade | A Study in Emerald (Second Edition) | Mechs vs. Minions | Manoeuvre: Distant Lands | Neon Gods | Gandhi: The Decolonization of British India, 1917 – 1947 |
25 | Antike Duellum | 1862: Railway Mania in the Eastern Counties | Orongo | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Martians: A Story of Civilization | First Martians: Adventures on the Red Planet | Concordia Venus | Warpgate |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Gyges | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.772 |
Gyges | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.703 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.972 | yes |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.821 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.753 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.750 | no |
2020 | 281655 | High Frontier 4 All | 0.743 | yes |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.722 | yes |
2020 | 326767 | Infinity N4: Core Rules | 0.719 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.682 | no |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.680 | yes |
2020 | 253506 | Versailles 1919 | 0.671 | yes |
2020 | 317985 | Beyond the Sun | 0.632 | yes |
2020 | 259061 | Skytear | 0.631 | yes |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.630 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.617 | yes |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.605 | no |
2020 | 273703 | Altar Quest | 0.600 | yes |
2020 | 278292 | Anachrony: Infinity Box | 0.567 | yes |
2020 | 177014 | Giga-Robo! | 0.559 | no |
2020 | 318472 | Blood Bowl: Second Season Edition | 0.543 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.537 | yes |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.535 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.521 | yes |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.516 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.505 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.504 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.493 | no |
2020 | 295486 | My City | 0.491 | yes |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.484 | yes |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.475 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.460 | no |
2020 | 271055 | Dwellings of Eldervale | 0.458 | no |
2020 | 207486 | Infinities: Defiance of Fate | 0.454 | no |
2020 | 245224 | La Belle Époque | 0.450 | no |
2020 | 322985 | Shadows of Brimstone: Swamps of Death (Revised Edition) | 0.439 | no |
2020 | 295604 | Rangers of Shadow Deep: Deluxe Edition | 0.422 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.404 | no |
2020 | 287325 | Exceed: Shovel Knight – Hope Box | 0.404 | no |
2020 | 233673 | Exploration | 0.401 | no |
2020 | 249275 | The Silver River | 0.391 | no |
2020 | 206480 | Imperial Struggle | 0.387 | yes |
2020 | 220827 | Planet Apocalypse | 0.381 | yes |
2020 | 318983 | Faiyum | 0.371 | no |
2020 | 309630 | Small World of Warcraft | 0.370 | no |
2020 | 174400 | BattleCON: Wanderers of Indines | 0.362 | yes |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.345 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.343 | yes |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.341 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.335 | no |
2020 | 256964 | Dark Rituals: Malleus Maleficarum | 0.333 | no |
2020 | 284639 | Gatefall | 0.330 | yes |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.955 | no |
2 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.925 | no |
3 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.917 | no |
4 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.887 | no |
5 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.880 | no |
6 | 2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.811 | no |
7 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.783 | no |
8 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.770 | yes |
9 | 2022 | 254127 | Europa Universalis: The Price of Power | 0.761 | no |
10 | 2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.756 | no |
11 | 2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.741 | no |
12 | 2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.740 | yes |
13 | 2022 | 344105 | Anunnaki: Dawn of the Gods | 0.727 | no |
14 | 2021 | 259066 | Commands & Colors: Samurai Battles | 0.720 | yes |
15 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.712 | yes |
16 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.706 | no |
17 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.695 | no |
18 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.694 | yes |
19 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.680 | no |
20 | 2022 | 282775 | The Warp | 0.667 | no |
21 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.660 | no |
22 | 2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.644 | no |
23 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.643 | no |
24 | 2021 | 336794 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.632 | yes |
25 | 2021 | 260934 | Ignite | 0.604 | no |
26 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.603 | no |
27 | 2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.598 | no |
28 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.593 | no |
29 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.591 | no |
30 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.588 | no |
31 | 2021 | 332420 | Nexum Galaxy | 0.587 | no |
32 | 2021 | 266448 | Imperium: The Contention | 0.578 | yes |
33 | 2022 | 275802 | Carnival Zombie: 2nd Edition | 0.576 | no |
34 | 2022 | 316915 | U.S.S. Freedom | 0.573 | no |
35 | 2021 | 310100 | Nemesis: Lockdown | 0.570 | no |
36 | 2021 | 262941 | Dominant Species: Marine | 0.569 | yes |
37 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.560 | no |
38 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.556 | no |
39 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.556 | no |
40 | 2021 | 331212 | Aeon's End: Legacy of Gravehold | 0.552 | no |
41 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.540 | yes |
42 | 2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.540 | no |
43 | 2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.531 | no |
44 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.531 | no |
45 | 2021 | 318560 | Witchstone | 0.528 | no |
46 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.520 | no |
47 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.514 | yes |
48 | 2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.514 | no |
49 | 2021 | 302413 | Steamwatchers | 0.511 | no |
50 | 2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.506 | no |
51 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.505 | no |
52 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.504 | no |
53 | 2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.501 | no |
54 | 2022 | 284778 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – Dr. Sattler vs. T. Rex | 0.497 | no |
55 | 2022 | 252315 | The Everrain | 0.495 | no |
56 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.490 | no |
57 | 2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.488 | no |
58 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.483 | no |
59 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.479 | no |
60 | 2022 | 281647 | Stellaris: Infinite Legacy | 0.474 | no |
61 | 2021 | 330608 | Cryo | 0.473 | yes |
62 | 2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.468 | no |
63 | 2023 | 315727 | Last Light | 0.467 | no |
64 | 2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.466 | no |
65 | 2021 | 281676 | Galactic Era | 0.465 | no |
66 | 2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.463 | no |
67 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.461 | no |
68 | 2022 | 266018 | Trinidad | 0.458 | no |
69 | 2021 | 308566 | Nova Lux | 0.454 | no |
70 | 2021 | 332075 | Warhammer Quest: Cursed City | 0.454 | no |
71 | 2022 | 303731 | Primal: The Awakening | 0.453 | no |
72 | 2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.453 | no |
73 | 2022 | 305462 | The Age of Atlantis | 0.443 | no |
74 | 2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.442 | no |
75 | 2021 | 291828 | Car Wars (Sixth Edition) | 0.431 | no |
76 | 2022 | 242705 | Aeon Trespass: Odyssey | 0.431 | no |
77 | 2021 | 324657 | Core Space: First Born | 0.429 | no |
78 | 2022 | 337098 | Lords of Vaala: Dragonbond | 0.429 | no |
79 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.428 | no |
80 | 2021 | 329450 | Equinox | 0.425 | no |
81 | 2022 | 311823 | Nova Aetas Renaissance | 0.422 | no |
82 | 2021 | 344697 | Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team | 0.421 | no |
83 | 2022 | 292509 | The Shadow Planet: The Board Game | 0.420 | no |
84 | 2022 | 242994 | Onimaru | 0.413 | no |
85 | 2022 | 313821 | Where Humans Don't Belong | 0.412 | no |
86 | 2021 | 259962 | Stress Botics | 0.410 | no |
87 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.399 | no |
88 | 2021 | 299450 | Tsukuyumi: Full Moon Down (Second Edition) | 0.396 | yes |
89 | 2021 | 328871 | Terraforming Mars: Ares Expedition | 0.395 | yes |
90 | 2021 | 267244 | The Defence of Procyon III | 0.391 | no |
91 | 2021 | 308119 | Pax Renaissance: 2nd Edition | 0.372 | yes |
92 | 2021 | 287711 | The Path of the Adventurers | 0.371 | no |
93 | 2021 | 292899 | Tribune | 0.365 | yes |
94 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.363 | no |
95 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.363 | no |
96 | 2021 | 278304 | Fief: France Edition | 0.359 | no |
97 | 2021 | 332800 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition) | 0.355 | no |
98 | 2021 | 310641 | Ostium | 0.354 | no |
99 | 2021 | 292375 | The Great Wall | 0.353 | no |
100 | 2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.352 | yes |